In the last few days news broke that Kim Jong Un, the sexiest man alive and soon-to-be TIME Person of the Year, had ordered another long-range rocket test, to be performed in the next two weeks.
North Korea claims that the goal of this test is to put a satellite into orbit, in order to further establish a peaceful space program. The United States and other countries in the area claim that it's an illegal test of long-range weapon technology. North Korea has enough plutonium for 14 warheads but doesn't have the capability of hitting US soil.
North Korean officials are confident that this test, meant as a rebound from the previous failed launch, will be completely successful and the problems that plagued the last rocket (which, they still claim, made it into orbit, a fact that has been proven false multiple times). US and other officials, given the short period of time between the two launches, are not too sure.
However, I believe that this launch will meet the country's goals. To be a success, the rocket needs to survive in the air just long enough to get out of view from North Korea before self destructing. That way, Kim Jong Un can strut about like an overstuffed turkey for a few hours before the international community proves his failure and begins the mockery.
Of course, given the almost 90% likelihood that the rocket will blow up mere seconds after takeoff, North Korea is due for another round of embarrassment before the calendar year is over. However, they can still find success in this situation. As long as they don't make a big deal about the launch until AFTER they know the results, they can shrug it off like it was no big deal, then find some piece of information and hail it as the future for North Korean science and technology.
Well, given the history of the country's relationship with the media, we will likely see a lot of fanfare before the rocket vaporizes itself on the launchpad. Which is perfectly fine, because North Korea can call it a fireworks test before the New Year celebration.
But, in the event that they firmly establish it as a long-range missile test, or "space program", they can still make a success out of the situation by saying that [insert country here] shot it out of the skies.
But if it's clear that it really did self destruct, they can still claim success by saying, "We weren't really trying to get it into space anyways."
So that's why this
missile test rocket launch will be a complete success for North Korea and the United States and South Korea will be bowing to the might of Pyongyang, no matter what the outcome of the event is.